June 18, 2019

Trump’s Reelection Support is 50-50 in Texas, Biden and O’Rourke Lead the Democrats, UT/TT Poll Says

June 18, 2019/ Anne Enke

By Ross Ramsey. First published on The Texas Tribune.

Half of the registered voters in Texas would vote to reelect President Donald Trump, but half of them would not, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Few of those voters were wishy-washy about it: 39% said they would “definitely” vote to reelect Trump; 43% said they would “definitely not” vote for him. The remaining 18% said they would “probably” (11%) or “probably not” (7%) vote to give Trump a second term.

“That 50-50 number encapsulates how divisive Trump is,” said James Henson, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and co-directs the poll. But, he added, the number is not necessarily “a useful prediction for an election that’s 16 months away.”

Among Republicans, 73% would “definitely” vote for Trump; among Democrats, 85% were “definitely not” voting for another term.

“This squarely focuses on Trump,” said Daron Shaw, professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin and co-director of the poll. However, he said, “it isn’t a matchup with a flesh-and-blood Democrat. It shows Trump’s relative weakness, compared to a generic Democrat in this state.”

Independents were less emphatic than either the Republicans or the Democrats, but 60% said they wouldn’t vote for the president in an election held today, including 45% who would “definitely not” vote for him.

“The most interesting and more consequential thing, this far out, is that amongst independents, 60% say they will probably or definitely vote for somebody else,” said Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research for the Texas Politics Project. “Overall, Texas independents tend to be more conservative than liberal and tend to look more like Republicans than like Democrats ... and things have gotten worse among independents.”

Republican candidates' narrow margins of victory in many statewide races in 2018 could bring those independent voters into the spotlight.

“As the state becomes more competitive along partisan lines, at the same time it remains polarized, independents matter more,” Henson said. “For a long time, we didn’t have any reason to pay attention to them.”

Both men and women put Biden in first place, but among women, O’Rourke and Warren are tied for second. Among men, Sanders is the second favorite, edging out O’Rourke. Biden has strong support among black voters (34%), with O’Rourke in second (18%). Those two finish in a dead heat among Hispanic voters (18%), followed by Sanders (12%) and Castro (9%).

The presidential race has been bumpy, so far, for the two Texans seeking the nomination.

“After four months of campaigning, Castro’s numbers remain unchanged in Texas,” Blank said. “And the top five candidates have 75% of the vote in Texas.”

O’Rourke’s Texas numbers are good after a vigorous Senate campaign in 2018 — he’s in that top tier among the Democratic contenders here. But he’s having a harder time elsewhere. “Running successfully in Texas in 2018 is not the same as running well in a national race,” Henson said.

O’Rourke is by far the better known of the two, a recognition that comes with a double-edged sword: More Texas voters know him, and while 42% have a favorable opinion of him, almost half (46%) have an unfavorable opinion of last year’s candidate for U.S. Senate.

Castro, a former San Antonio mayor, has never run a statewide race, and it shows in his numbers: 26% of Texans have a favorable opinion of him, 33% have an unfavorable impression, and 41% have either a neutral opinion of him or no opinion at all.

The poll also asked voters whether they have heard of 23 people who are seeking the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential nomination. Ten of them were known to more than 50% of Texas registered voters: Biden, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Harris, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Castro, Buttigieg, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York. Only one of the candidates — Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam — was known to less than 10% of the registered voters.

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from May 31-June 9 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points, and an overall margin of error of +/- 4.46 percentage points for Democratic trial ballots. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

The Texas Tribune is a nonpartisan, nonprofit media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them – about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

October 17, 2016

Trump Support Shows Serious Decline As 50% Of His Polled Supporters Say Voting Is Rigged

October 17, 2016/ Anne Enke

Trump Support Slides, But Vote 'Rigging' Rhetoric Takes Hold Morning Consult

"A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll taken October 13-15 found Trump had 36% support, while Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton holds steady at 42% in a four-way race including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Trump had risen to 39% immediately after the vice presidential debate, but has now given up those gains since the Oct. 7 sexual assault tape was leaked by the Washington Post.

80% of Americans say they are confident their vote will be accurately counted in the election, with independent voters being less certain their votes will count. Only 68% say they are confident their vote will be correctly registered on election day, compared to Democrats, who are 91% confident and Republicans being 80% confident.

Just 50% of Trump voters are confident that votes will be registered as placed by voters, compared to 85% of Clinton supporters."

22 toxic days for Hillary Clinton Politico

“This is making me tear up, it’s so infuriating and disgusting,” a Clinton aide wrote in an email halfway through the St. Louis debate, arguably the low-water point of a general election that has had few high-tide moments. “This is not our country.”

In Trump's Mourning-in-America march to the abyss, he has rejected political norms, and his campaign has largely devolved into trashing Clinton, the women accusing him of sexual harassment, the legitimacy of U.S. elections, the media, President Barack Obama, the GOP and the time-honored idea of a presidential campaign as a sunny, aspirational enterprise.

Hillary Clinton Has a Power That No Man Can Take Away by Katherine Bell Slate

"In the fall of 1992, when I was a freshman at Yale and Bill Clinton was running for office, the best thing that happened to me was meeting Hillary Clinton. The worst was being raped by a fellow student who said he was going to run for president one day.

I tell the story of meeting Hillary all the time. I almost never tell the other one.

Threats of sexual violence—including comments like the ones Donald Trump and Billy Bush made on the Access Hollywood bus, and the ones recounted by Trump’s seemingly endless wave of accusers—aren't just a consequence of the system that has kept men in possession of nearly every form of public power for hundreds of years. They are integral to that system.

So it makes sense that we are talking about rape and sexual harassment this much. It makes sense that this showdown is so sickening and painful. Of course Hillary has to remain composed and gracious in the face of Donald Trump’s misogyny and Bill Clinton’s sordid past, and patiently remind us of everything she’s achieved. All professional women have to do this at times, to some extent. But Hillary Clinton is a master of the form. She’s had more practice at it than any of us."

What Are the New Battleground States New York Times

It seems safe to say that the majority of Americans are emotion ally and psychologically crushed by the 2016 election, whichever candidate they are supporting. This chart from the NYT gives us a snapshot of America in 15 states that will make a difference. Besides the dominating gender gap that is facing Donald Trump over his attitudes about women, the fact that college-educated whites are breaking for Hillary and not the Republican candidate is another major influence in these election results on November 8.

Ken Bone and the 4 Stages of Viral Fame New York Magazine

We hope that Ken Bone's marriage is intact after his week of fame, one that he never asked for. After the red sweater-wearing citizen asked a key question in last Sunday's week, the Internet went wild. Makers of red sweaters had web ads ready to roll Monday morning, inviting men to wear the authentic Ken Bone real man red sweater.

Within 24 hours, Bone was on MSNBC and CNN, although he wasn't arrogant about his new fame. But within 72 hr. he was promoting Uber. But then -- oh dear -- people began doing their due diligence on Bone, where they discovered that — as a partial list — the red-sweater Bone frequently commented on erotic photos, and had once written he believed that Trayvon Martin’s killing was justified. Yikes! Bone infatuation over. And just like that, America exited the Bone zone. . leaving the potential wreckage of his marriage behind him. Surely there is a chill in the air out there in Missouri.

Related: Guy Angrily Staring at Trump During the Debates Was Thinking Exactly What You Thought He Was New York Magazine

Even if Trump Loses Big, the Anger Will Remain. Here's How the Left Can Address It by EJ Dionne Jr. The Washington Post

"When I watch GOP leaders bemoaning their party’s fate under Trump (or belatedly jumping off his ship), I am reminded of John F. Kennedy’s warning that “those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.”

But progressives should resist complacency bred by the idea that the anger on display in this election will soon subside as older voters uneasy with change decline in numbers. Throughout the West, social-democratic and left-liberal parties are facing defections, divisions and decline. Their economic model — combining a market orientation with welfare states, strong unions and regulations — is no longer delivering the broadly shared prosperity that was once its hallmark. Yes, part of the problem, particularly in the United States, comes from a weakening of social protections thanks to conservative policy victories and the resistance of congressional Republicans to social reform. Nonetheless, even if Trump loses big, the left and center-left have a lot of work and rethinking to do.