Hillary Clinton's National Lead Over Sanders Widens

Hillary Clintn's Lead Over bernie Sanders Widens WSJ

Hillary Clinton has increased her national lead to 25 percentage points over Bernie Sanders, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.

The summary maintains the talking points of close races in Iowa w/o stressing that Sanders support is strictly among the young in Iowa. We addressed these details with charts from VOX yesterday (Sat.) The month change in the Iowa caucus date presents a very different geographic congregation of those students, now back in school on 3 university campuses. This is why Five Thirty Eight is convinced that Hillary will win Iowa heartily.

In spite of the daily saturation in politico talking heads analyzing polls, the WSJ shares key charts that show nationally, just how little the national race between Clinton and Sanders has changed over a long period of time. Nationally, it also shows Hillary's position with young voters currently much stronger than in Iowa.

538 Projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa Politico

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.
The polls-plus forecast gives Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning, while Sanders comes in at 18 percent. That margin narrows dramatically with a look at just Iowa polls, with Clinton leading Sanders 66 percent to 34 percent.
The forecasts suggest that state polls alone may not be the most accurate predictor of primary results.
Aside from sorting between Democrats and Republicans and individual states, the online forecast tool offers two filtering options: polls-plus, a forecast that determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on state and national polls as well as endorsements; and polls-only, a determination based solely on state polls.

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Survey Monkey Poll Says Only Ages 18-24 Are Feelin' the Bern; The Rest of Democrats Are Cool

 

VOX analyzes this week's NBC Newws/Survey Monkey national poll of Democrats and Democrat leaners, Jan. 4-10 and comes up with ‪#‎s‬that jibe with our own in-depth analysis of numerous polls and reported on this FB wall frequently.

For all the media and Internet hype, the ONLY age group in which Bernie Sanders is way ahead of Hillary Clinton is among the 18-24 age group. You won't hear this fact on MSNBC, but it is the truth as the best we know it.

VOX graphs it out for us.

AGE

Once we look at people age 24-35, Hillary is even with Bernie. After age 35, she pulls out all the stops.

RACE

Whites love Sanders. Period. Among Whites, Clinton and Sanders are even. After that Hillary pulls out all the stops.

GENDER

Men support Hillary over Sanders but by only 6%. We all know that white men support Sanders -- although plenty of smart ones age 24 and over support Hillary.

Among women, Hillary pulls out all the stops, leading Bernie 56% to 32%. This is why Bernie supporters like Susan Sarandon are demeaning women with the suggestion that -- unlike us -- she has a brain and isn't voting with her vagina.

Do the Democrats Have a Next Act? Politico

The Democrats also face a particular challenge in hammering out a coherent new vision. Their party’s internal ideological differences have drawn less attention than the loud intramural arguments among Republicans, but they are in a sense more pronounced. The Sanders-Warren-labor-left wing of the party sees the plight of the middle and working classes as a function of institutional changes over the past 40 years—deregulation, the weakening of unions—that only power politics can overcome by strengthening such institutions and protections once more.

The Clinton-Obama wing is more apt to see such problems as the result of larger forces in the national and global economy—and of rapid technological and social change that must somehow be managed, not resisted.

That is an intensely sharp divide, and one that the Democrats will presumably be forced to reconcile eventually or suffer the consequences of disunion. But bridging the gap will not be easy because the two competing worldviews imply contradictory (even incompatible) political messages and policy proposals.

Hillary Clinton Headlines

Islands of college-town support could hurt Sanders Des Moines Register